Chloé Zhao looked about as shocked as I imagine most awards pundits (including this one) were when Hamnet took Best Drama at the end of the Golden Globes this evening. It was my runner-up to take the prize, but Sinners was the rather heavy favorite to get it. It provided a surprise ending to a ceremony where Ryan Coogler’s acclaimed horror tale only took two races with Cinematic and Box Office Achievement and Original Score. It had it winning four.
One Battle After Another from Paul Thomas Anderson did win four GG’s: Picture (Musical or Comedy), Director, Screenplay, and Teyana Taylor in Supporting Actress.I got the first 3 right while I had Amy Madigan (Weapons) in the fourth competition after her Critics Choice Awards victory a week ago. This sets up a more intriguing Supporting Actress showdown.
Same goes for Supporting Actor where Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) is back in the game after a podium walk tonight. That’s a boost he needed after being snubbed by SAG voters earlier this week. He was my pick for the GG.
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) continued winning for Hamnet for Actress (Drama) in what may well be a sweep). Same goes for Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) in Actor (Drama) while Rose Byrne is your Actress victor in Musical or Comedy for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Those were all correct calls on my part. I got it wrong in Actor (Musical or Comedy). I went with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) though The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura was in the envelope. It’s a needed prize for the Brazilian thespian after he too was a SAG omission and failed to make the BAFTA long list. My fourth miss was predicting It Was Just an Accident in Non-English Language Film. The Secret Agent got that one too as it Oscar BP fortunes are looking sturdier.
Overall I went 11/15 as I also was correct selecting KPop Demon Hunters in Animated Film and Original Song (“Golden”).
My biggest post-GG takeaway is that One Battle After Another is still looking like an Academy juggernaut while Sinners hit a significant bump. It is a legit conversation as to whether Hamnet or Sinners is the biggest potential spoiler to a Battle crowning. Honestly it probably won’t matter.
Keep an eye on my blog as I’m about to do an Oscar predictions update!
The 83rd edition of the Golden Globes Awards airs Sunday with Nikki Glaser returning for hosting duties. The Globes have a sometimes spotty history matching with Oscar and it’s a little trickier to make Academy correlations due to the Globes splitting the Picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy.
That said, it would be a surprise if One Battle After Another (extremely like) and Sinners (not guaranteed) didn’t emerge victorious in their respective BP derbies. As for the acting races… that could get interesting. Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up prediction and some analysis.
I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with my thoughts and how I performed.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
I would not be surprised if the Globe voters go with Hamnet, but I’ll project a Battle/Sinners narrative stays intact at the Oscars with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale picking up the gold.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another
Let’s not overcomplicate this one. Battle is the heavy favorite and anything else would be a shocker.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Marty Supreme (? – I guess)
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Pahani (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
As with the Critics Choice Awards, I’m going with PTA over Coogler with a remote shot of a Panahi upset.
WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Best Actress – Drama
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)
Another easy one to call with Buckley potentially on her way to a seasonal sweep.
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor – Drama
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)
It’s highly unlikely any of the nominees here will win the Oscar and probably one or two (or at best three) will make the Academy quintet. I’m going with a slight upset as most are going with Moura. I think Sinners love could prevail.
WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Runner-Up: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Byrne is the favorite and I’m going with her though I have a nagging feeling there could be an upset and it could be Hudson, Infiniti, or Stone.
WINNER: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Bugonia
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
This is where the potential Oscar recipients reside this time around (unlike in 2025) and I’ll say Chalamet reigns supreme with DiCaprio and Hawke as spoilers.
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
We will get a big clue as to whether Madigan is a potential sweeper or if Taylor or someone else become the main competition. I’ll say Aunt Gladys’s momentum continues.
WINNER: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
An intriguing race as Elordi shocked all with the CCA win and is certainly a factor now. There’s also the strong possibility of one of the Battle boys getting this. I wouldn’t even discount a Mescal upset. I am (with reservations) going with Skarsgård as Value needs a boost.
WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Screenplay
Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
Probably another Battle/Sinners showdown with the former more likely.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Non-English Language Motion Picture
It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Agent and Value are MAJOR threats though I’m going Accident.
WINNER: It Was Just an Accident
Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
Best Animated Motion Picture
Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
Zoo 2 could threaten but KPop juggernaut should roll.
WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
Best Original Score
F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt
Sinners is the definite frontrunner with Battle as a possibility.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Song
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Another Sinners has a chance though KPop should be… well, golden,
WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunter, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2
Sinners should take this silly little category in its third silly little year of existence.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Is there one? Maybe KPop?
And that means I have these movies winning these numbers of Golden Globes:
4 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
One Battle After Another
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Hamnet, If I Has Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Weapons
Nominations for the 32nd Actor Awards (the ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards) were unveiled yesterday. The group’s selections added to an already tricky Oscar season to project (especially with the acting races).
I went 20/30 in my predictions as One Battle After Another and Sinners dominated and actually fared stronger with SAG than I figured. It was also a good day for Frankenstein and a poor one for Sentimental Value, Jay Kelly, and Wicked: For Good.
Let’s walk through each race with the nominees, how I did, and a quick take on where I see the voters going.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Frankenstein‘s impressive run continued with an unanticipated nod here. It won out over my Sentimental Value call. Value was completely blanked. As for a winner, I would currently give OBAA the slight edge over Sinners.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 3/5
It’s Hudson (who I should’ve figured the SAG branch would recognize) and Infiniti making the cut instead of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) and Sentimental‘s Renate Reinsve. Buckley is unquestionably the favorite.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
How I Did: 4/5
A nice showing for Bugonia with Stone and Plemons in the lead derbies. I went with The Secret Agent‘s Wagner Moura over Plemons. A note that SAG essentially ignored 2025 foreign features. Chalamet is out front though this voting body could surprise and go with DiCaprio or Hawke.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 3/5
The big surprise here is A’Zion. Could this give her momentum for Oscar inclusion? At the least, it probably puts her above costar Gwyneth Paltrow as far as contention. A’Zion and Mosaku are in over Emily Blunt (The Smashng Machine) and Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value). The fact that Blunt or lead Dwayne Johnson from Smashing couldn’t make it here might put the final kibosh in their Oscar hopes. I see the SAG win boiling down to Madigan or Taylor.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 3/5
Caton is a genuine shocker. He and Mescal are in the quintet over Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) and Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). This is where I figured Sandler could materialize and his Oscar chances are fading fast. Skarsgård should still be fine for inclusion though this snub obviously makes me question any shot of emerging victorious. The suddenly resurgent Elordi and del Toro have the best hopes of a podium walk.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Frankenstein and Battle over Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good. Along with Actress, this is the easiest race to pick via Final Reckoning.
That means these films received these numbers in terms of nominations:
7 Nominations
One Battle After Another
5 Nominations
Sinners
3 Nominatons
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme
2 Nominations
Bugonia
1 Nomination
Blue Moon, F1, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Song Sung Blue, Weapons, Wicked: For Good
The Actor Awards air March 1 and I’ll have reaction up after the festivities…
The initial cinematic experiences of 2026 arrive this weekend via disaster flick sequel Greenland 2: Migration, animalistic horror tale Primate, and the nationwide expansion of dramedy Is This Thing On? You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
My near teens projection for Gerard Butler’s Migration would give it the highest debut of the newcomers, but that won’t be near enough to dislodge Avatar: Fire and Ash from a fourth frame atop the rankings. Now that the Christmas corridor has lapsed, holdovers should generally see declines in the 50% or so range.
Primate could certainly over perform as the genre sometimes does, but I’ve got it in a race with a fellow (and family friendlier) creature feature in the seventh weekend of Zootopia 2. The Housemaid should round out the top five.
As for Bradley Cooper’s third directorial feature Is This Thing On?, my meager $2.6 million take puts it well outside the top half of the charts. It might even fail to make the top 10. I’m expecting the same for Angel Studios’ I Was a Stranger. I didn’t do an individual prediction post for it. I’ll say $2.4 million.
And with that, here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $20 million
2. Greenland 2: Migration
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Primate
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
5. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
Box Office Results (January 2-4)
It was a heap of holiday leftovers as 2026 rang in with Avatar: Fire and Ash dominating with $41.4 million, in line with my $41.4 million call. The James Cameron threequel is up to $307 million after three weeks. This will not reach the heights of its predecessors, but I would imagine the studio would have no qualms with future sequels.
Zootopia 2 only eased 2% in weekend #6 with $19.3 million, toppling my $15.3 million prediction. The Disney blockbuster stands at $364 million.
The Housemaid has developed commendable legs with only a 1% dip at $15.1 million compared to my $12.5 million estimate. The buzzy thriller has earned $75 million after three weeks with nine digits in its sights.
Marty Supreme was fourth with $12.5 million (I went a little higher at $14.2 million) as the potential Timothée Chalamet Oscar winner has grown to $56 million in its second frame of wide release.
Anaconda rounded out the top five with $10 million, slithering beyond my $8 million projection for $45 million after two weeks.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants found itself in sixth with $8.3 millon (I said $7.7 million) for $57 million after three weeks,
Biblical animated pic David was seventh with $7.6 million, a touch ahead of my $6.5 million guesstimate for $69 million in three weeks,
Finally, Song Sung Blue was eighth with $5.8 million (I said $6 million) with $25 million now in the coffers of the musical drama.
The 31st Critics Choice Awards aired tonight and it’s the first major awards show of the season with the Golden Globes up in one week. Obviously CCA could offer the first clues as to what will follow with the Oscars as the grand finale.
In what was seen as a Warner Bros showdown between One Battle After Another and Sinners for Best Picture, it was Battle that prevailed as I predicted. Yet it was Sinners and (unexpectedly) Frankenstein that tied for the most victories at four apiece.
I went 17/23 in my predictions which I’ll take in a night that gave us a couple of legit surprises. Besides BP, Battle took Director (Paul Thomas Anderson) and Adapted Screenplay (also PTA) for three trophies. It solidifies the pic as the frontrunner at the Oscars.
Sinners emerged victorious in Original Screenplay, Young Actor/Actress (Miles Caton), Score, and Casting and Ensemble (where I had Battle projected).
The lead acting categories went as planned with Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) in Actress and Timothée Chalamet as Marty Supreme in Actor. You can expect to see both make more podium walks in the coming weeks.
I correctly called Amy Madigan as Supporting Actress for the already iconic Aunt Gladys in Weapons. It will be interesting to see if she racks up more wins as the season goes along.
The acting derby that was a genuine shocker was Supporting Actor where Jacob Elordi took the prize for Frankenstein. I had Benicio Del Toro (Battle). Truth be told, I would’ve slotted Elordi fifth or sixth as far as win possibility and have had him in and out of my quintet at the Oscars. We’ll see if this is a one-off, but this definitely increases his visibility in forthcoming ceremonies. I did correctly project Guillermo del Toro’s monster tale in Costume Design, Hair & Makeup, and Production Design.
Here’s where else I got it right – The Naked Gun as Best Comedy, KPop Demon Hunters for Animated Feature and Song (“Golden”), Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning for Stunt Design, and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Visual Effects.
Where I went wrong – F1 picked up two CCA’s in Editing and Sound. I respectively went with Battle and Sinners. Train Dreams is the Cinematography victor over Battle.
Finally, The Secret Agent is the 2nd biggest surprise (after Elordi) as Best Foreign Language Film where I had It Was Just an Accident predicted and No Other Choice as runner-up.
The Golden Globes are a week away. I will have winner predictions up on the blog on Wednesday!
All in all, these movies generated these numbers of victories:
4 Wins
Frankenstein, Sinners
3 Wins
One Battle After Another
2 Wins
F1, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams, Weapons
Now called the SAG Actor Awards and not just SAG Awards, the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs March 1 on Netflix. Nominations are out this Wednesday. Acting categories usually match Oscar at a 4/5 clip while top race Best Ensemble is usually heavy on eventual Academy BP contenders. Last year, all five SAG nominees ended up being in the BP Oscar ten. The year prior it was four.
Here are my predictions in the six SAG Actor races with an alternate for each. I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts and how I performed on Wednesday!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Wicked: For Good
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Outstanding Performane by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – One Battle After Another
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these pictures:
5 Nominations
One Battle After Another
4 Nominations
Sentimental Value
3 Nominations
Sinners, Wicked: For Good
2 Nominations
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
1 Nomination
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jay Kelly Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Weapons
Marking the third directorial feature for Bradley Cooper, dramedy Is This Thing On? expands nationwide on January 9th. Will Arnett stars as a divorcee who stumbles into stand-up comedy. Laura Dern, Cooper, Andra Day, Amy Sedaris, Arnett’s Smartless cohost Sean Hayes, Christine Ebersole, and Ciarán Hinds are among the supporting cast.
Critical response is on the plus side with 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic. Cooper’s behind the camera debut, 2018’s A Star Is Born, was a box office smash that generated numerous Oscar nods. 2023’s follow-up Maestro went the Netflix route and also managed a Best Picture nod along with acting mentions. Thing is not expected to be an awards player. It’s made just over $1 million in limited release. In all likelihood, this will perform better on the coasts. Despite the presence of Cooper, I don’t see much anticipation.
I will project that this struggles with the expansion and may not even reach $3 million.
Is This Thing On? wide opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million
For my Greenland 2: Migration prediction, click here:
After premiering at Fantastic Fest last September, Primate swings into multiplexes on January 9th. Centered on a chimp gone rabid during a family vacation, Johannes Roberts (no stranger to the genre with 47 Meters Down and The Strangers: Prey at Night to his credit) directs. Non-monkey cast members include Johnny Sequoyah, Jessica Alexander, and Troy Kotsur.
With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviewers are calling it a fun creature feature throwback. This probably won’t get near the $14 million achieved by last year’s The Monkey, which focused on a demented title character of the toy variety.
As I’ve written many times, horror pics always have the ability to exceed estimates. With that caveat, I’ll project high single digits.
Primate opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million
For my Greenland 2: Migration prediction, click here:
Gerard Butler headlines the disaster flick sequel Greenland 2: Migration which kicks off 2026 releases on January 9th. He reunites with his Angel Has Fallen and Kandahar director Ric Roman Waugh for a follow-up to the 2020 original. Costars include Morena Baccarin and Roman Griffin Davis.
A comp to part 1 is impossible since it was put out in December 2020 without a theatrical release due to the COVID pandemic. It did perform well on home viewing. Butler’s genre pics have a history with early January debuts. 2023’s Plane earned just over $10 million out of the gate while last year’s Den of Thieves 2: Pantera made off with $15 million.
My hunch is that Migration gets right between those numbers for a respectable enough start.
Greenland 2: Migration opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million
This Sunday, January 4th, the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards air on E! and USA (with return host Chelsea Handler) and they should provide the first glimpse of various future Oscar winners even before nominations come out. The Best Picture winner at CCA has matched the Academy’s 6 out of the past 10 years including the last 3 in a row. As of late, the acting winners match at about a 3 for 4 ratio.
What’s the main storyline in my estimation? I believe there’s a Warner Bros showdown in BP between One Battle After Another and Sinners (that same logic applies to Director). The former from Paul Thomas Anderson appears to be the frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if CCA honored Ryan Coogler’s vampiric saga. It’s a close call though I’m going with the safer bet.
Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up selection and some brief commentary.
Best Picture
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
See above
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
See above
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
It is generally assumed that Buckley is the easiest pick of the acting quartet to forecast and that she is poised to sweep through the season. This is where it should begin. If there is a threat, watch out for Reinsve or Byrne.
Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
DiCaprio could take this and I wouldn’t totally discount Hawke or Moura for the upset. However, the smart money is on Chalamet to triumph and potentially run the table.
Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
This is a tough one. I suspect the Sentimental performers will cancel each other out and Mosaku is unlikely. CCA could actually honor Grande and I think she has a stronger shot here than with the Academy. Taylor is arguably the soft Oscar frontrunner and this show could kick off a sweep. Yet I’m going with veteran Madigan for her Halloween costume inspiring work in Weapons.
Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Another challenging selection as the voters could easily make this is a Sentimental victory for Skarsgård. It’s tempting to pick him, but I’m rolling with del Toro’s performance that inspired many a meme.
Winner: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Another possibility for Value though Sinners should nab this one as it doesn’t have to go up against studio competitor Battle.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
This is an easy call for Battle with Hamnet as the only potential spoiler.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât
CCA has a rule that if a film is nominated for BP, it doesn’t get on the ballot for this race (the same rule applies to Best Comedy). That’s why you won’t find Sentimental Value here. Accident is the favorite though I’m tempted to go with an upset since this marks its sole nod (not making Director or screenplay). Choice and Agent could win. Once again I’ll play it safe.
Winner: It Was Just an Accident
Runner-Up: No Other Choice
Best Comedy
Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville
A dark horse pick like Friendship is within the realm of possibility and Phoenician is doable. That said, The Naked Gun remake got some deserved credit for bringing the laugh-a-minute spoof genre back and it might be rewarded for that.
Winner: The Naked Gun
Runner-Up: The Phoenician Scheme
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
I would argue that noms came out before Zootopia 2 turned into a massive box office juggernaut which gave it a better chance to win. The cultural juggernaut that is KPop probably would be my pick regardless.
Winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
Best Casting and Ensemble
Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
Another showdown between Battle and Sinners and I’m going with the same result as BP.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Young Actor/Actress
Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)
Caton’s work in Sinners should emerge though Jupe could threaten.
Winner: Miles Caton, Sinners
Runner-Up: Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet
Best Cinematography
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
Sinners with Battle right behind.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
The CCA throwing a bone to Wicked is a possibility. The safer pick is Frankenstein.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Editing
Nominees: F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners
The biggest story here was the surprise inclusion of documentary The Perfect Neighbor. It won’t take the prize that should be reserved for Battle with F1 or Sinners as remote chance spoilers.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: F1
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good
This is the easiest race to pick Frankenstein in.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
If Sinners exceeds expectations, it could take this. So could Wicked under the bone throwing scenario I posited in Costume Design. Again – bet on Frankenstein.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Score
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
This one represents another battle between Battle and Sinners though the latter should triumph here.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Song
Nominees: “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Drive” from F1; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
The Sinners track is viable but the omnipresent “Golden” is likelier.
Winner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Best Stunt Design
Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
This would appear to be a pretty obvious occasion to honor Mr. Cruise and his team.
Winner: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Runner-Up: F1
Best Sound
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare
I’m going with a slight upset. F1 is likely the smart play, but I’m saying CCA will give another race to Sinners.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: F1
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman
This is Avatar‘s sole nom. It still shouldn’t have any problem winning.
Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: Frankenstein
That means I’m projecting that these movies will generate these numbers of wins:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
5 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, Weapons
Look for a recap of the ceremony with my thoughts and results on how I performed!
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